On-Chain Analytics

Blockchain-native intelligence: on-chain valuation metrics, DeFi protocol risk scoring, whale movement tracking, yield farming comparison, and token unlock impact analysis.

When to Use

USE this skill when:

  • “NVT ratio for BTC” / “is ETH overvalued on-chain”
  • “whale movements” / “who’s accumulating BTC”
  • “best DeFi yields” / “compare Aave vs Compound”
  • “impermanent loss calculator”
  • “token unlocks this month” / “SOL vesting schedule”
  • “TVL trends” / “which protocols are growing”
  • “stablecoin flows” / “USDT supply on Ethereum”
  • “MVRV ratio” / “on-chain valuation”

When NOT to Use

DON’T use this skill when:

  • User wants traditional technical analysis — use fin-expert
  • User wants to execute a trade — use fin-trading
  • User wants portfolio P&L — use fin-portfolio
  • User wants news or sentiment — use fin-news-intel
  • User wants macro economic data — use fin-macro-calendar

Tools

Existing Tools

  • fin_market_price — price and volume data for valuation ratio calculations
  • fin_ticker_info — market cap, circulating supply for NVT/MVRV context
  • fin_market_overview — broad market metrics for sector comparison

On-Chain-Specific Tools (Documented)

  • fin_onchain_metrics — fetch blockchain valuation and activity metrics

    • Parameters: asset (BTC | ETH | etc), metrics[] (nvt | mvrv | sopr | puell | stablecoin_ratio | active_addresses | hash_rate)
    • Returns: current value, historical percentile, signal interpretation (overvalued/undervalued/neutral)

  • fin_defi_protocol — protocol-level analysis

    • Parameters: protocol (aave | compound | uniswap | lido | etc), chain (ethereum | arbitrum | polygon | etc)
    • Returns: TVL, TVL trend (7d/30d), revenue, fees, user count, audit status, governance token metrics

  • fin_defi_yields — compare yield farming opportunities

    • Parameters: min_tvl (default $1M), chains[] (filter by chain), asset (filter by deposit asset), sort_by (risk_adjusted_yield | apy | tvl)
    • Returns: ranked list with APY, TVL, risk score, IL exposure, audit status, net yield after IL

  • fin_whale_tracker — track large holder movements

    • Parameters: asset, min_amount (threshold for whale classification), timeframe (24h | 7d | 30d), direction (accumulation | distribution | all)
    • Returns: whale transactions list, net flow direction, exchange inflow/outflow, severity classification

  • fin_token_unlocks — upcoming token unlock schedule

    • Parameters: asset (optional, all if omitted), timeframe (7d | 30d | 90d)
    • Returns: unlock date, amount, percentage of circulating supply, recipient category (team/VC/community), daily volume comparison

On-Chain Valuation Framework

Key Metrics and Interpretation

MetricFormulaOvervaluedFair ValueUndervalued
NVT RatioNetwork Value / Daily Transaction Volume>9565-95<65
MVRV RatioMarket Cap / Realized Cap>3.5 (cycle top)1.0-3.5<1.0 (cycle bottom)
SOPRSpent Output Profit Ratio>1.05 (profit taking)~1.0<0.95 (capitulation)
Puell MultipleDaily Issuance USD / 365-day MA>4.0 (top)0.5-4.0<0.5 (bottom)
Stablecoin Supply RatioBTC Market Cap / Stablecoin SupplyHigh (low buying power)—Low (dry powder available)

Signal Aggregation

Combine multiple metrics for higher-confidence signals:

  • Strong Buy: 3+ metrics in undervalued zone simultaneously
  • Strong Sell: 3+ metrics in overvalued zone simultaneously
  • Conflicting: Mixed signals — present each metric individually, do not force a consensus

Whale Tracking

Classification Tiers

TierBTC AmountETH AmountLabel
Mega Whale>10,000 BTC>100,000 ETHInstitutional / Exchange
Large Whale1,000-10,000 BTC10,000-100,000 ETHFund / Major Holder
Whale100-1,000 BTC1,000-10,000 ETHHigh Net Worth

Movement Interpretation

  • Exchange to Wallet: Accumulation signal — removing from exchange reduces sell pressure
  • Wallet to Exchange: Distribution signal — depositing to exchange suggests intent to sell
  • Wallet to Wallet: Neutral or OTC trade — monitor but lower conviction
  • Exchange to Exchange: Arbitrage or internal transfer — generally noise

Severity Assessment

Rate each whale movement by:

  1. Size relative to daily volume (>10% = high impact)
  2. Historical pattern of this wallet (serial seller vs long-term holder)
  3. Current market context (whale selling during fear = more impactful)

DeFi Yield Framework

7-Factor Risk-Adjusted Scoring

Each factor scored 0-10, weighted to produce a composite risk-adjusted yield score:

FactorWeightScoring Criteria
APY20%Higher = better, but flag >100% APY as likely unsustainable
TVL20%>$100M = 10, $10M-100M = 7, $1M-10M = 4, <$1M = 1
Audit Status15%Multiple audits = 10, single audit = 7, unaudited = 2
Protocol Age10%>2 years = 10, 1-2 years = 7, 6-12 months = 4, <6 months = 1
IL Risk15%No IL (single-sided) = 10, low IL (stablecoin pair) = 7, high IL (volatile pair) = 3
Chain Security10%L1 mainnet = 10, established L2 = 7, new L2/sidechain = 4
IL-Adjusted Yield10%Net yield after estimated IL

Impermanent Loss Calculator

For liquidity provider positions:

IL = 2 * sqrt(price_ratio) / (1 + price_ratio) - 1

Where price_ratio = current_price / entry_price.

  • Always show: gross APY, estimated IL, net yield (APY - IL)
  • Flag when estimated IL exceeds 50% of APY — the position may be net negative
  • Compare net yield against simple staking or lending alternatives

Token Unlock Impact Analysis

Assessment Framework

For each upcoming unlock event, evaluate:

  1. Size Impact: Unlock amount as % of circulating supply

    • 5% = Major (likely significant selling pressure)

    • 2-5% = Moderate (notable but manageable)
    • <2% = Minor (likely absorbed by market)

  2. Recipient Category:

    • Team/Founders: Higher sell probability (may need liquidity)
    • VC/Investors: High sell probability (mandate to return capital)
    • Community/Ecosystem: Lower sell probability (often staked or used)

  3. Volume Context: Compare unlock value to 30-day average daily volume

    • If unlock > 5x daily volume: market cannot easily absorb
    • If unlock < 1x daily volume: likely absorbed without major impact

  4. Historical Unlock Behavior: How did price react to previous unlocks for this token?

Response Guidelines

  • Lead with the most actionable insight — don’t bury the signal in data tables.
  • For valuation metrics, always include the historical percentile (e.g., “NVT at 87, in the 92nd percentile historically”).
  • For whale tracking, separate signal from noise — only highlight movements that exceed the significance threshold.
  • For DeFi yields, always show the risk-adjusted ranking, not just raw APY. Sort by risk-adjusted yield by default.
  • For IL calculations, show concrete dollar amounts, not just percentages.
  • For token unlocks, create a calendar view with impact severity color coding.
  • Cross-reference on-chain signals with price action — divergences are the most valuable signals.
  • Specify which blockchain/chain the data comes from. On-chain metrics vary by chain.

Risk Disclosures

  • On-chain metrics are descriptive, not predictive. They indicate network state but do not guarantee price direction.
  • DeFi protocols carry smart contract risk regardless of audit status. Audits reduce but do not eliminate risk.
  • Whale tracking data may have a delay. Large holders often use multiple wallets and OTC desks, making tracking imperfect.
  • Yield farming involves smart contract risk, impermanent loss risk, and protocol governance risk. APYs can change rapidly.
  • Token unlock schedules may change. Always verify against official project documentation.