Natural Gas Geopolitical Long

Strategy Overview

A trend-following long strategy for natural gas based on:

1. Goldman Sachs Forecast Upgrade: Significantly raised NG price forecasts for 2026-2029

   • TTF gas: raised to 72 EUR/MWh for Q2 2026
   • JKM gas: raised to $26.90/MMBtu for Q2 2026
   • Henry Hub: raised to $3.55/MMBtu for 2028

2. Geopolitical Tension: Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz (critical oil/gas transit)

3. Energy Supply Risk: Potential disruption to global energy supply chain

Entry Conditions

• Price above 20-period SMA (uptrend confirmation)
• RSI < 70 (not overbought)
• Volume above 20-period average (confirmation)
• Trend strength > 25

Exit Conditions

• Stop loss: 8%
• Take profit: 20%
• Trend reversal: price breaks below SMA20 with 5% buffer
• RSI > 80 (extremely overbought)